The Thorndon Bubble

What has happened to Broadcasting Minister Jonathan Coleman’s Think Big plans for public service broadcasting? (See various past Broadcasting posts)

It would seem matters have bogged down at  Cabinet. The dark, powerful trio of  English, Joyce and McCully are not buying in.  Perhaps having to find $1.7b for Mr Hubbard’s cupboard is not helping. Not that there are many in a Nat Cabinet who,at the best of times, would defend PSB. Some think that local production and public broadcasting are the same thing, and besides,  SKY and all that money the Government is pumping into the broadband future will take care of it

Coleman had Treasury and Ministry of Culture and Heritage put up options on what to do once funding for TVNZ’s non-commercial channels 6 + 7 runs out early in 2012. (with little if any reference to anyone with broadcasting experience.)

Cabinet may have added another alternative to officials’ three options of  do nothing; leave TVNZ to run Ch7 under a separate governance arrangement (most likely outcome); merge with RNZ (either using Parliamentary Channel or CH 7 or both)

Now the time-honoured solution; have an industry/officials committee review everything and assesse a a preferred option.If this involved genuine public consultation, fine but much more likely it is a  kick for touch

Perhaps looming decisions may just cause Cabinet to focus. A date needs to be announced soon on Digital Switch On (and analogue switch off.) And also announcements on any extension to Freeview terrestial coveage, currently only received by 75% of homes and excluding many provincial cities.- all but one Nat held.  And there is the  TVNZ Amendment Bill now at submission hearings at Commerce Committee. It does away with the TVNZ Charter and begs the question of the Minister: what will you replace it with?  He would hope his options paper would provide a part-answer  but signals are reception is poor inside the copper dome.

There is a growing consensus that the Dems will lose the House. US News reports:

Typically cautious Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, is rocking the political world with a new “Crystal Ball” prediction: The GOP will win the House, making Ohio’s John Boehner speaker, might get a 50-50 split in the Senate, and will pick up some eight new governors.

A recent Gallup poll had the Republicans 10% ahead on the generic ballot – their largest lead in over 70 years.

What maybe more exciting is the Senate. The Republicans have 41 seats. They need to win a massive 10 seats to gain control. There are 37 seats up for election, 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans.

So the Republicans would have to win over half of the Democratic held seats, and not lose any of their own. Normally an impossible task.

But it is now only improbably, not impossible. 538 calculates that the Republicans will pick up seven seats with a greater than 50% probability – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada.

There are four other seats where they are deemed to have a 30% or grater chance, and only trail by 3% or less. They are Illinois, Washington, California and Wisconsin. They only need three of those four to gain control.

You know things are bad for the Democrats when Illinois and California are marginal!

The Illinois seat, is Obama’s old one.

The elections are on 2 November 2010 – just over eight weeks away.

You’ll understand that I was not a fan of the current Mayor of Auckland then and continued not to be a fan, until very recently. On numerous occasions I expressed my dislike of him publicly, though rather more circumspectly.

I disliked him as a talk-back host on Radio Pacific. His world, it seemed to me, was divided into ‘good people’ and ‘bad people’, a view I thought simplistic and untrue.

I wasn’t much impressed when he was Mayor of Auckland from 2001 to 2004 either and did my bit to see that he wasn’t re-elected.

More recently, during Jim Mora’s The Panel, I described him as ‘that dreadful man’.

I was surprised therefore to find myself and Judy invited some months ago to a private lunch which turned out to be composed entirely of John Banks supporters and some of his advisors. Citing a favourite saying of my ex-father-in-law, I said to Judy, ‘We’re among friends, but they’re not ours.’ But it turned out to be a very pleasant afternoon and Mr Banks did not appear to be bearing any grudges.

Ten days ago I was one of five speakers at an Auckland Mayoral Fathers’ Breakfast at Sky City organised by Parents Inc., the organisation founded by Ian Grant. Each of us had seven minutes to give an inspirational address on fatherhood to the 750 men present. The Mayor of Auckland, formally hosting the event, spoke first.

I’ve heard a lot of speeches in my time and few have been memorable. I don’t think I’ll ever forget the seven minutes in which John Banks held that audience in the palm of his hand, enthralled. He did not, as his advisors have suggested, talk about his own traumatic childhood. He talked about the troubled kids he has met in the course of his job; kids on drugs, kids in trouble with the law, kids in borstals and prisons, lost boys and girls. A common theme, especially among the boys, he observed, was the absence of a father in their lives. These were boys without role models, boys who didn’t know how to be men. Fathers mattered and fathers had a responsibility to teach their kids the difference between right and wrong.

Delivered entirely without notes, the short address was spellbinding, extremely moving, and entirely met the inspirational criteria laid down by the breakfast’s organisers. When he returned to the table, I said to him, ‘If you could talk like that during your campaign, you would certainly be the first Mayor of the Super City.’

Now let's not forget the Brian Edwards is red to the core; a former Labour Party candidate in Wellington, and a close personal friend of Helen Clark, as well as being her biographer. That puts Edwards' words into an ebtirely different context. And he's not done:

John Banks is a polarising individual, admired by some, hated – not too strong a word – by others. For my part, I have not changed my view of the man I attacked on The Ralston Group, the talk-back host I deplored on Radio Pacific or the Mayor of Auckland in his previous incarnation. But either he has changed or I have. I suspect it’s the former. Certainly the person I have got to know in the past fortnight is a very fine man indeed. Or maybe there are two John Banks, two sides to the one man – the father and the politician perhaps. I’d be happy to have the father continue as Mayor.

This is a remarkable piece from Brian Edwards, and we commend him for writing it. He is receiving plenty of adverse comments on his blog from enraged leftists.

More importantly though, this is a crushing blow for Len Brown, until recently the darling of the left. WhaleOil likens it to a spike. We can't help but wonder how well Edwards' words will have gone down in Phil Goff's office.

Most of us will have friends and relatives that have suffered losses in Christchurch.

I’ve been following events since 6am on National Radio – what a great service.

I haven’t tied up cell phone lines talking to Chch colleagues because they have more important uses. And colleagues have more important things to do.

This post is not to be used to attack the government. Today is a day for sympathy and practical suggestions.

Later on we can assess how the system worked.

The signs are that Queensland MP Bob Katter will not support Labor. This may be a blessing in disguise for Julia Gillard, as Bob is rather eccentric.

Katter wants the mining tax and any ETS dropped. This makes it very unlikely that he will support a Labor-Green Government.

So it will all come down to Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. If they stick together they will decide the Government. If they disagree with each other, then the House is tied 75-75 and another election will be needed.

What still tips it Labor’s way in my view is that they are more likely to last three years, as the Greens will control the Senate from July 2011.

However the Independents will be concerned that their electorates may not like the policies of a Labor/Green Government, and if they go for that option they may risk losing their seats next election.

Very watchable attack ad on Obama. The production quality is excellent.

According to Glenn Beck, universities are re-education camps and more dangerous than terrorist groups. Really.

Three hours ago, I was just about to hit “publish” on a frivolous blog post when the lateral fault under Christchurch groaned into life, rendering everything else a bit beside the point.

I am hoping that PA’s South Island correspondents will chime in once they’ve made sure everyone is in one piece and had a chance to have a cup of tea with LOTS OF BRANDY IN IT. Or if the power is still out and there's no camping stove to hand, just start with the brandy. (It's what my dear old Christchurch-raised Nana would have done)...

The details are sketchy as the sun has just come up, but there are reports of widespread damage, the airport is closed and the civil defense folk have activated the national response centre.

I’ve already heard from one Green party member downtown, whose doing alright. The Press has finally put out something worth reading.

Our thoughts are with you Christchurch! For those of you, like me, who have eaten half of their earthquake kit and ‘borrowed’ the batteries, it’s time to revisit the Get Ready, Get Thru website and rebuild that kit!

Here is a fresh report from MSNBC, with more details than The Press report above.

Tell us how you are doing Christchurch!

This page is being updated by Chch Civil defense.